The Isle of Man is not experiencing mass immigration.

Several candidates in the House of Keys election have been repeating claims about 7,500 immigrants coming to the Island. It's fairly clear that this figure isn't being used as part of a coherent discussion about immigration, but as part of a scare tactic.  If you've watched the videos of some of the Rushen hustings, you'll have seen me shaking my head each time this figure is quoted.  I'm shaking my head not because the figure (taken from an FoI) is wrong, but because it is being boldly presented as headline evidence for a problem that doesn't exist, because it shows a lack of understanding of the visa system and because people who repeat this figure without understanding what it really means are just trying to manipulate the electorate with fear.  It's an ugly tactic.​

Let’s talk about visas. ​

The key thing to note is that it makes very little sense to ask about how many visas are issued, unless you understand something about the visa system.  There’s an FoI (5295577) about the number of visas issued from January 2018 to January 2026, 8 years of data.  It turns out the answer was 7341. 

Now, if you just take that total and go around telling people that “7,500 visa applications were made and over 4000 of them were for dependents” most people think that’s 3,500 migrants requiring visas arriving here on the Island and bringing 4000 non-working dependents who are “just a drain on our system”  But it isn’t. And anyone telling you that is misrepresenting the facts and trying to create fear,  fear about being 'overwhelmed', fear about access to services, fear about changing cultures.

There’s a real danger in receiving the data from FoI requests without taking time to understand the system that the data applies to, and this is a prime example where a failure to understand the visa system has led to some pretty alarming claims.  So, in order not to be manipulated into fearing this number, let’s try to understand it.​

Visa process

Starting with the visa process.  First up there are different routes to getting a visa depending on the sector you are going to work in.  But it doesn’t matter which sector it is, everyone will need Entry Clearance as the first step. 

If you are on a Worker Migrant visa and something happens, like you get promoted to a different job or want to change companies, your employer will need to apply for Confirmation of Employment (CoE).

When your initial permission expires, you need to apply for Further Leave to Remain (FLR). 

And finally after 5 years of working and contributing to the Island’s economy and services you can apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain and have ‘Settled’ status.​

How do the numbers break down?

Let’s look at the FoI response again. Out of the 7341 total visas there were 4062 entry clearance visas, of which 1772 (43.6%) were for adult or child dependents.  But don’t forget that’s over an 8 year period so it works out about 500 visas a year of which just under half (221) were for adult or child dependents.  If a family were to move to the Island from outside the CTA they would each need an entry visa, one for the worker migrant and the others as dependents.  And that’s just the first step. 

If the worker migrant to whom the visa was issued initially applied to do one job, but then their circumstances changed (eg they got a promotion or wanted to move jobs) during the 5 years after they arrived, their employer would need to apply for Confirmation of Employment (CoE) for them. They may also at some point have to apply to extend their stay and pay for Further Leave to Remain.  In the grand total of 7341 visa applications, there were 2651 FLR visas.  Anyone applying for a CoE or FLR is not a new arrival to the Island.  A new CoE or FLR is a variation to their visa conditions during the time that they are already living and working here.  And if the Migrant needs a FLR update to their visa, so do their dependents.  Out of the 2651 FLR visas, there were 1227 for adult and child dependents.  Those dependent visas only appear in the numbers because if the migrant changes their visa then their dependents also have to update their visas.

Finally there’s Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR).  There were 628 applications made over the 8 years, about 78 a year.  Each year about 38 migrants and 40 dependents.  The trouble with the data being a snapshot across 8 years is that there is no way of telling if those people arrived in 2013 and applied for ILR in 2018 and appear in the table only once, or if they arrived in 2018 and applied for ILR in 2023 and would appear in the data table twice.  What is certain is that 7341 definitely does not represent 7341 individuals being granted visas to live here.

And there’s the crunch. It is certain that some people will be counted several times over in this data table.  A family of 4 arriving so one of the adults can take a job would need 4 visas to get entry clearance and 4 further visas for ILR, and if the job had changed in the interim another 4 FLR visas would have been necessary. 

It’s a very silly mistake (or a deliberate attempt to misrepresent the truth) to look at the total of 7341 immigration applications and tell anyone that about seven and a half thousand immigrants arrived on our island.  At best this situation has been caused by someone asking for information without taking time to understand the system that the data applies to. At worst they are looking for evidence to try to sow discord and fear about the level of immigration to the Island.  As an Island we rely on immigrants to support our healthcare, businesses and economy, we always have and we likely always will. 

It’s worth mentioning that permission to live in the Island isn’t being given away for free – the fee for ILR alone recently went up to £3,226 per person – and that applies to each worker and each member of their family.  A family of four would pay £12,904 just to get their entry clearance.  Fees are payable for each FLR and ILR too.

In the 2011 census the Island’s population was 84,497.  In 2026 census it was 84,069.  Do you still want to believe that there is uncontrolled immigration happening on our Island?